负面在线评论及商家回复对顾客购买意愿的影响

从负面在线评论比例和失误严重性两个角度出发，通过引入归因理论、感知信任和商家回复等相关内容，探究负面在线评论对潜在顾客购买意愿影响机制和内部机理。对496份调查问卷所得数据进行统计分析，研究结果表明：负面在线评论比例和失误严重性都对潜在顾客购买意愿有显著的负向影响，且两者都通过影响失误的归属性归因、可控性归因、稳定性归因和感知信任影响潜在顾客购买意愿；在负面在线评论比例与失误严重性不同的情况下，商家应采取不同的回复策略实现节约成本与减小损失的目的。     

合成部队多阶段作战任务成功概率仿真评估

考虑战场环境和战时装备维修保障评估合成部队多阶段作战任务成功概率, 对于辅助合成部队作战任务规划和装备维修保障决策具有重要的现实意义。在分析合成部队装备和合成部队装备维修保障模式的基础上, 构建了战时合成部队多阶段任务剖面; 通过对合成部队作战过程的分析, 提出了战时合成部队各阶段任务成功要求; 充分考虑合成部队多作战单元任务的协同性、合成部队装备的多样性及其战时随机共因失效(random common cause failure, RCCF)、战场环境下敌方火力打击和阶段任务时间的随机性、换件修理时间的不确定性等复杂因素, 利用蒙特卡罗仿真(Monte Carlo simulation, MCS)原理给出了合成部队多阶段作战任务成功概率评估的详细仿真流程, 并通过算例进行仿真和结果分析。研究结果表明:本文模型可用于合成部队多阶段作战任务成功概率评估和战斗阶段持续时间优化, 并为战时合成部队备件携行方案优化奠定了模型基础。     

双重不确定冷贮备系统的可靠性分析

运用不确定理论研究了无充足样本的冷贮备冗余系统。假设系统所有元件的寿命服从具有不确定参数且相互独立的不确定分布,基于可靠度函数和平均寿命建立了3类冗余系统可靠性的数学模型:转换开关完全可靠型、转换开关离散型、转换开关连续型的冷贮备系统。此外,针对元件寿命为独立同分布的特殊情况进行了分析,给出数值算例,进一步印证模型的合理性。     

基于GPC的环肋耐压圆柱壳结构失稳概率分析

为评估具有小失效概率特性的深潜环肋耐压圆柱壳结构的失稳概率，提出了一种新的基于高斯过程分类和重要抽样的自适应分析方法.该方法通过引入马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛法和欧式距离，开发了一种新的考虑预测不确定性和取样均匀性的自适应试验设计策略，以便更高效地构造高斯过程分类器；采用核密度估计构造准最优重要抽样密度函数；基于失效概率估计的稳定性，提出了一种更精确的迭代停止准则.通过某一分段函数验证了所提分析方法的准确性及高效性.应用所提方法得到某深潜环肋耐压圆柱壳结构的失稳概率约为8.242×10^-5.     

血浆N末端脑利钠肽水平和心脏超声功能参数在评估临床心功能分级中的价值研究

目的探讨血浆N末端脑利钠肽(NT-proBNP)水平和心脏超声功能参数在评估临床心功能分级中的价值.方法选取慢性心力衰竭患者106例,入院次日清晨抽取患者空腹肘静脉血,采用酶联免疫法检测血浆NTproBNP水平,并对患者进行纽约心脏病协会(NYHA)心功能分级评定,之后进行心脏彩色多普勒超声检查.结果血浆NT-proBNP水平与心功能分级之间呈明显正相关(P0.01);左心室短轴缩短率、左心射血分数与心功能分级之间呈明显负相关(P0.01);左心室舒张末期内径、左心室收缩末期内径与心功能分级之间呈明显正相关(P0.01);不同心功能分级之间血浆NT-proBNP水平、各心脏超声功能参数均存在明显差异(P0.01);其中,心功能Ⅰ级和Ⅱ级,Ⅲ级和Ⅳ级之间差异均无统计学意义(P0.05),Ⅲ级与Ⅰ级、Ⅱ级,Ⅳ级与Ⅰ级、Ⅱ级之间差异均有显著统计学意义(P0.01);NT-proBNP联合心脏超声检查对不同心功能分级的诊断特异性和敏感性明显高于血浆NT-proBNP水平、心脏超声检查,差异具有统计学意义(P0.05).结论血浆NT-proBNP水平联合心脏超声功能参数能够客观准确地判断慢性心力衰竭患者的心功能情况,有助于指导临床对该类患者的治疗及判断预后.     

连续刚构铁路桥收缩徐变效应监测与分析

对连续刚构铁路桥箱梁温度场及桥梁线形进行长期、连续监测,通过主梁跨中下挠的理论与实测对比揭示了连续刚构铁路桥收缩徐变效应。对比了国内外常用收缩徐变估算模型,选择CEB-FIP徐变模型对黄河特大连续刚构桥进行了有限元分析。采用实测温度数据,以箱梁内测温度、外侧温度、顶底板温度梯度、左右侧温度梯度作为箱梁温度场的评判指标,对箱梁1年内的四季温度场分布进行分析。在基于相同温度场的条件下,通过理论值与实测值对比,发现分析成果与实测结果较吻合,说明混凝土的收缩徐变是引起连续刚构铁路桥跨中下挠的主要原因,对比结果还说明通过改善箱梁顶底板应力差能够改善收缩徐变长期效应。     

Influence of γ' precipitate on deformation and fracture during creep in PM nickel-based superalloy

FGH96 is a powder metallurgy nickel based superally used for turbine disk of aero-engines. In the present study FGH96 alloy with four different γ' precipitate microstructures were produced via solution heat-treatment with different cooling rates, and the maximum cooling rate reached 400°C/min which was a super cooling rate for Nickel-based superalloy. The creep tests were conducted for PM FGH96 alloy under the testing condition of 704°C and 690 MPa. The relationship between the creep properties and the distribution of γ' precipitate was established. The creep mechanism was analyzed by using TEM and ACTEM, and the dislocation movement was studied at the atomic scale. The creep strain rate was calculated through a physically based crystal slip model established based on crystal plasticity. The calculated results were consistent with the test ones, illustrating the validity of the model. The fracture mechanism was also investigated, and the results showed that the creep cracks generated on the surface due to the oxidation. It was observed that the cracks propagated in different ways depending on the different average diameters of γ' precipitate. With the decrease of the average γ' precipitate size,the critical shearing stress increased and the resistance of the dislocation slipping increased. The fracture mechanism for the primary stage transformed from intragranular to intergranular due to the change of dislocation slipping.     

一种高可靠分布计算系统的适应性故障侦测方法

针对高可靠分布计算系统的故障侦测,提出一种适应性故障侦测方法.根据系统计算节点的负载和网络传输时延,动态地估算心跳消息超时时限,协商改变心跳消息的发送周期,以适应系统状态的变化,减少故障侦测服务的错误.模拟实验表明,该方法与通常的故障侦测方法及NFD-E相比,故障侦测出错次数较少,侦测时间较短,并能够适应高可靠分布计算系统状况的变化,在侦测的实时性和正确性上提供较好的平衡.     

Cascading failure of complex networks based on load local preferential redistribution rule北大核心CSCD

To better explore the universal robustness against cascading failures on complex networks, closely focusing on the load which is the most important physical quantity that can affect the spread of cascading failure, and dynamic process after a node fails, a cascading failure model with tunable parameters is proposed based on the local characteristic of node. With this model we study the cascading failure condition of ER and BA networks, and obtain the formula of phase transition point theoretically. The relationship between the robustness against cascading failures on complex networks and parameters in the model, including the topology parameters, the initial load coefficient, and the redistribution coefficient, is discussed numerically. In addition, theoretical results also are verified by the simulation results of the ER and BA networks. ©, 2015, The Journal Agency of Complex Systems and Complexity Science. All right reserved.     

基于ISM与FMECA的加工中心故障分析

故障分析是实现加工中心可靠性水平增长的重要环节,因此提高故障分析的准确性至关重要.鉴于此,本文首先充分考虑加工中心故障子系统间影响关系,基于ISM法构建递阶结构模型,使得关联故障子系统间复杂影响关系层次化,以求得深层故障子系统,确定可靠性改进薄弱环节.其次对所得薄弱环节进行FMECA分析,进而确定关键故障模式,为提高加工中心可靠性奠定基础.最后以某系列加工中心现场故障数据为研究对象进行实例研究,证明了ISM和FMECA法在加工中心故障分析中的准确有效性.